RSV Vaccine Sales Forecast Reaches $2.2 Billion in 2024

The market research firm Airfinity Limited recently lowered its sales projections for Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) vaccines for older adults in the United States from $4.7 billion annually to $1.7 billion by 2030.

Airfinity’s estimate framework announced on July 23, 2024, expects 2024 revenues to reach $2.2 billion.

Which is reduced from 2023, when RSV vaccine revenues totaled about $ 2.4 billion.

This change in forecast follows new recommendations from the U.S. CDC vaccine advisory committee that RSV vaccines be offered only as a single lifetime dose for older adults. This reduces the estimated eligible population to about 46 million people.

Furthermore, the CDC has not announced a decision on potential booster doses.

However, future dosing recommendations could change as long-term efficacy and safety data emerge. Airfinity wrote that applying scenario frameworks for a booster every two or three years could increase the U.S. market's value to $6.6 billion or $5.2 billion, respectively.

Airfinity’s RSV Lead Isabella Huettner commented, “U.S. market share estimates are difficult to anticipate at this point with different scenarios being possible. Based on current data, GSK (AREXVY™) appears to be most likely to capture the majority of the market in the long term due to promising efficacy and durability."

As of July 28, 2024, three RSV vaccines are approved for use in the U.S.

Previously, Beyfortus™, the first approved extended half-life monoclonal antibody offering passive immunization to prevent lower respiratory tract infections in infants caused by RSV, is expecting a 'blockbuster' performance in the second half of 2024.

Beyfortus produced revenues of €547 million in 2023.

GlobalData plc previously issued a sales forecast indicating Beyfortus could reach global sales of $1.27 billion in 2029.